Inflation, recession, and declining US Hegemony Tuesday, January 3, 2023

Alasdair Macleod, Michael Oliver & Chen Lin return. Last week Austrian economist Daniel Lacalle assured listeners that the dollar will remain as the world’s reserve currency for at least the next 5 to 10 years. Alasdair may disagree. In his December 22nd article, he states, “2023 will see the consequences of Saudi Arabia ending the petrodollar. Energy exporters are feeling their way towards new commercial arrangements in a bid to replace yesterday’s dollar. There’s talk of a new Asian trade settlement currency. But we can expect oil exports to be offset by inward investment, particularly between Saudi Arabia, the GCC, and China. The most obvious surplus emerging in 2023 is of internationally held dollars, whose use-value is set to drop away leaving it as an empty shell. It amounts to a perfect storm for the dollar, and all those who sail with it. Those of us who live long enough to look back on these years are likely to find them to have been pivotal for both currencies and global alliances. They will likely mark the end of western supremacy and the emergence of a new, Asian economic domination.” If Alasdair is right that doesn’t sound like the dollar will retain its hegemony for the next 5 to 10 years. We look forward to how he responds to Dr. Lacalle’s viewpoint. As always we look forward to hear what markets Chen believes will be ripe for the picking in 2023 and how Michael views the dollar, gold, silver and US Treasuries.