The Stock Market Could Be Too Strong for Its Own Good Wednesday, December 11, 2024

Investors either don’t see risks or don’t care about them. AI optimists are behaving like the investors who got burned in the Great Depression and dot-com bubble, Vanguard’s chief economist warns. The Stock Market Is Doing Something It's Never Done Before - Investors Could Be "Playing With Fire," According to Warren Buffett The Buffett Indicator shows US stocks are overvalued at 200% of GDP, one of the highest levels in history. Blackrock, Goldmann Sachs, and Vanguard all predict low stock returns (3-5% annually) for the next decade. Many financial experts are calling this the "golden age" of fixed investments. Even if the Trump administration does everything right, some problems will take a while to fix. Debt is a major challenge. Record levels of debt requires record selling of bonds. This pushes bond interest rates higher. Until the government starts paying down debt, bond interest rates will remain elevated. At the same time, the Federal Reserve is lowering borrowing costs by reducing interest rates. This creates an opportunity. Your Personal Bank allows you to earn dividends (likely increasing) while accessing funds to pay off debt, purchase items, or invest in assets. If dividends are higher than the borrowing costs, you keep the difference. This creates positive cash flow (positive arbitrage) on your money. We are likely headed to a historical positive arbitrage scenario. Historically, positive arbitrage has been available 24 of the past 28 years. The other 4 years the dividends and borrowing costs were similar. The average annual positive arbitrage was 2-3%. This is interest you earn on money you spent or allocated elsewhere!